ICCIAUS Weekly Economic Update powered by Intesa Sanpaolo

01/03/2021 - Despite the recovery of business confidence indices recorded in February, GDP is expected to contract sharply in Germany in the opening quarter of 2021, after proving more resilient than in the rest of the euro area in the autumn quarter of 2020. In particular:

  • The critical factor is the strict lockdown regime in place since 16 December, and recently extended until 7 March (which may be eased locally if the infection rate drops to less than 35 cases per 100,000 population, which is not yet the case).

  • Therefore, manufacturing may add around 3 billion to GDP at the beginning of 2021; however, in the same period, the services sector could subtract between 10 and 15 billion, of which over half accounted for by retail, and restaurant and hospitality services.

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