ICCIAUS Weekly Economic Update powered by Intesa Sanpaolo

19/03/2021 - In this week's economic update:

  • Euro area - For the time being, the rise of inflation depends entirely on transitory factors, with the upsurge in oil prices playing a crucial role. The dynamic could remain rather stable in the next few months, accelerate sharply between the third and fourth quarter, and subsequently plunge back down. The recovery will become more solid thanks to post-pandemic reopenings.

  • Italy – The labor market is close to a crossroads: expiration of the freeze on layoffs (expected from July) could result in the loss of between 170k and 460k jobs. The effect could be amplified in case of a reduction of the scope of the CIG redundancy scheme, and of a “normalisation” of the activity rate.

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