United States – The economic outlook for 2022 remains positive, but the war on inflation will cause injuries on the macro battlefield starting in 2023. US growth remains solid despite the Fed’s hawkish signals and market turbulence. As always, the adjustment of economic variables, both real and nominal, will take time. In the next few quarters, final domestic demand should continue to drive activity growth, keeping pressures high on wages and prices. The need to curb demand, and delays in monetary policy transmission, even in the new forward guidance era, will force the Fed to cause a slowdown that, despite being defined as “softish” by Powell, will probably be painful.
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